Croatia vs England

Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 16:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

23%

Croatia wins

24%

Draw

53%

England wins

xG Home

1.01

Croatia

Blowout %

30%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.69

England

Analysis

Our model puts an England win at 53% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.01 to 1.69.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price England at 1.69, which implies about 59.2%. Our model has it at 53% — 6.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Market odds

4.50

Croatia

3.80

Draw

1.69

England

Visualisations · generated charts