Chesterfield vs Tranmere Rovers
Our model puts a Chesterfield win at 59.6% in this League Two fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.85 to 0.89.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,564 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 52.1% of the time — 290 fixtures in that band. That is 7.5 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
How often they shoot
Chesterfield take 14.7 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
42.9% of Chesterfield's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 14 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.