Ceuta 6 de Junio vs UB Lebrijana

Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 16:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

34%

Ceuta 6 de Junio wins

23%

Draw

43%

UB Lebrijana wins

xG Home

1.54

Ceuta 6 de Junio

Blowout %

49%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.77

UB Lebrijana

Analysis

Our model puts an UB Lebrijana win at 43.1% in this Copa del Rey fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.54 to 1.77.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,564 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 37.8% of the time — 601 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.5%, so the two are within 2.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 4 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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