CD Sabadell vs FC Andorra
Our model puts a CD Sabadell win at 50.4% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.7 to 1.13.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,521 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.1% of the time — 464 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 3.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price the draw at 3.15, which implies about 31.7%. Our model has it at 24.2% — 7.5 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1515 against 1489, a gap of 26 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
How often they shoot
FC Andorra take 16.1 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
FC Andorra collect 3.4 cards a match, on 14.4 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.