CD Baztán vs Atlético Calatayud

Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 15:30

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

33%

CD Baztán wins

23%

Draw

45%

Atlético Calatayud wins

xG Home

1.57

CD Baztán

Blowout %

47%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.86

Atlético Calatayud

Analysis

Our model puts an Atlético Calatayud win at 44.5% in this Copa del Rey fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.57 to 1.86.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,564 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 37.8% of the time — 601 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.5%, so the two are within 2.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 4 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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