Canada vs Peru

Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 18:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

52%

Canada wins

26%

Draw

23%

Peru wins

xG Home

1.56

Canada

Blowout %

49%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.93

Peru

Analysis

Our model puts a Canada win at 51.7% in this Int: Friendly fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.56 to 0.93.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Canada at 1.5, which implies about 66.7%. Our model has it at 51.7% — 15 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Market odds

1.50

Canada

4.20

Draw

6.50

Peru

Published 4 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export