Boca Juniors vs Unión (Santa Fe)
Our model puts a Boca Juniors win at 64.1% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.32 to 1.07.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,521 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 51.2% of the time — 285 fixtures in that band. That is 8.3 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1515 against 1492, a gap of 24 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Boca Juniors are hard to beat
Boca Juniors have gone 9 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.