Belarus vs San Marino

A high-scoring home side

One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 84.4%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.