Atlético Melilla vs Atlético Pinatarense

Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 18:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

27%

Atlético Melilla wins

22%

Draw

51%

Atlético Pinatarense wins

xG Home

1.44

Atlético Melilla

Blowout %

45%

Dominant win

xG Away

2.05

Atlético Pinatarense

Analysis

Our model puts an Atlético Pinatarense win at 51.1% in this Copa del Rey fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.44 to 2.05.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,564 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 45.4% of the time — 476 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 4.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 4 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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