Almería vs Burgos
Our model puts an Almería win at 50.2% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.49 to 0.92.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,564 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 45.4% of the time — 476 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 4.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Almería at 1.59, which implies about 62.9%. Our model has it at 50.2% — 12.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Almería collect 3.2 cards a match, on 13.4 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
38.9% of Burgos's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
75% of the shots on target Burgos face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.