Albacete vs Eibar
Our model puts an Eibar win at 45.2% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.14 to 1.5.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,564 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 45.4% of the time — 476 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 4.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Albacete at 2.55, which implies about 39.2%. Our model has it at 29% — 10.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Early or late
40.9% of Eibar's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 22 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.