Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham Town

Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 14:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

37%

Accrington Stanley wins

26%

Draw

37%

Cheltenham Town wins

xG Home

1.38

Accrington Stanley

Blowout %

31%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.38

Cheltenham Town

Analysis

Our model puts a Cheltenham Town win at 37.2% in this League Two fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.38 to 1.38.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,564 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 37.8% of the time — 601 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.5%, so the two are within 2.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Market odds

2.35

Accrington Stanley

3.55

Draw

2.85

Cheltenham Town

Published 4 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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