Poland vs Romania

Friday, 2 October 2026 at 18:45

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

57%

Poland wins

24%

Draw

19%

Romania wins

xG Home

1.71

Poland

Blowout %

55%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.88

Romania

Analysis

Our model puts a Poland win at 56.8% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.71 to 0.88.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Poland's attack should find room against Romania's defence, by 100 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Market odds

1.61

Poland

4.10

Draw

4.60

Romania

Visualisations · generated charts

2026-10-02_Poland_vs_Romania_slide1_9_16 · slide

2026-10-02_Poland_vs_Romania_slide2_9_16 · slide

Published 3 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export