● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 3 October 2026
Int: UEFA Nations League
Hungary vs Georgia
Friday, 2 October 2026 at 18:45
📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.
Win probability
59%
Hungary wins
23%
Draw
17%
Georgia wins
xG Home
1.75
Hungary
Blowout %
57%
Dominant win
xG Away
0.82
Georgia
Analysis
Our model puts a Hungary win at 59.2% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.75 to 0.82.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Georgia at 3.3, which implies about 30.3%. Our model has it at 17.4% — 12.9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Market odds
2.15
Hungary
3.15
Draw
3.30
Georgia
Visualisations · generated charts
Published 3 October 2026 · aleavici-football
Signed export