China vs Palestine

Friday, 2 October 2026 at 11:35

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

54%

China wins

25%

Draw

22%

Palestine wins

xG Home

1.67

China

Blowout %

59%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.96

Palestine

Analysis

Our model puts a China win at 53.9% in this Int: Friendly fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.67 to 0.96.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price China at 2.65, which implies about 37.7%. Our model has it at 53.9% — 16.2 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1504 against 1503, a gap of 1 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.65

China

3.20

Draw

2.70

Palestine

Published 3 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export