Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Sweden
Our model puts a Sweden win at 44.5% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.09 to 1.43.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Bosnia-Herzegovina at 2.65, which implies about 37.7%. Our model has it at 28.9% — 8.8 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Sweden carry a rating of 1675 against 1569 for Bosnia and Herzegovina, a gap of 106 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Sweden's attack should find room against Bosnia-Herzegovina's defence, by 159 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.