● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 2 October 2026
Int: UEFA Nations League
Republic of Ireland vs Austria
Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 18:45
📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.
Win probability
33%
Republic of Ireland wins
27%
Draw
40%
Austria wins
xG Home
1.19
Republic of Ireland
Blowout %
30%
Dominant win
xG Away
1.33
Austria
Analysis
Our model puts an Austria win at 39.8% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.19 to 1.33.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Austria at 2.15, which implies about 46.5%. Our model has it at 39.8% — 6.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Market odds
3.40
Republic of Ireland
3.15
Draw
2.15
Austria
Visualisations · generated charts
Published 2 October 2026 · aleavici-football
Signed export