Panama vs New Zealand

Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 18:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

46%

Panama wins

26%

Draw

28%

New Zealand wins

xG Home

1.45

Panama

Blowout %

40%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.07

New Zealand

Analysis

Our model puts a Panama win at 45.8% in this Int: Friendly fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.45 to 1.07.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1552 against 1547, a gap of 5 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Panama are off their season peak

Panama peaked at 1635 this season and sit at 1552 today, 83 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Published 1 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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