Israel vs Kosovo

Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 18:45

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

45%

Israel wins

27%

Draw

28%

Kosovo wins

xG Home

1.44

Israel

Blowout %

43%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.08

Kosovo

Analysis

Our model puts an Israel win at 45.2% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.44 to 1.08.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Kosovo at 2.2, which implies about 45.5%. Our model has it at 28.3% — 17.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1533 against 1544, a gap of 11 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

3.10

Israel

3.30

Draw

2.20

Kosovo

Published 2 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export