● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 2 October 2026
Int: UEFA Nations League
Greece vs Netherlands
Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 18:45
📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.
Win probability
24%
Greece wins
26%
Draw
50%
Netherlands wins
xG Home
0.96
Greece
Blowout %
18%
Dominant win
xG Away
1.50
Netherlands
Analysis
Our model puts a Netherlands win at 49.5% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.96 to 1.5.
The ratings gap
Netherlands carry a rating of 1792 against 1642 for Greece, a gap of 149 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Netherlands's attack should find room against Greece's defence, by 173 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Market odds
3.40
Greece
3.55
Draw
1.95
Netherlands
Visualisations · generated charts
Published 2 October 2026 · aleavici-football
Signed export