Cook Islands vs Tahiti
Our model puts a Tahiti win at 74.9% in this Int: Friendly fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.88 to 2.74.
The ratings gap
Tahiti carry a rating of 1552 against 1402 for Cook Islands, a gap of 150 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Tahiti's attack should find room against Cook Islands's defence, by 157 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Cook Islands are off their season peak
Cook Islands peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1402 today, 98 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.