United States vs Chile

Wednesday, 30 September 2026 at 00:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

51%

United States wins

25%

Draw

24%

Chile wins

xG Home

1.59

United States

Blowout %

52%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.00

Chile

Analysis

Our model puts an United States win at 50.8% in this Int: Friendly fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.59 to 1.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price United States at 1.43, which implies about 69.9%. Our model has it at 50.8% — 19.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, United States's attack should find room against Chile's defence, by 156 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Market odds

1.43

United States

4.60

Draw

7.00

Chile

Published 30 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export