● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 1 October 2026
MLS
Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC
Wednesday, 30 September 2026 at 23:30
📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.
Win probability
29%
Red Bull New York wins
24%
Draw
47%
St. Louis CITY SC wins
xG Home
1.30
Red Bull New York
Blowout %
27%
Dominant win
xG Away
1.71
St. Louis CITY SC
Analysis
Our model puts a St. Louis CITY SC win at 46.8% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.3 to 1.71.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,536 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 45.9% of the time — 466 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 3.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
St. Louis CITY SC are hard to beat
St. Louis CITY SC have gone 17 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Market odds
3.25
Red Bull New York
4.00
Draw
1.91
St. Louis CITY SC
Visualisations · generated charts
Published 1 October 2026 · aleavici-football
Signed export