Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands

Wednesday, 30 September 2026 at 04:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

36%

Papua New Guinea wins

27%

Draw

38%

Solomon Islands wins

xG Home

1.28

Papua New Guinea

Blowout %

53%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.32

Solomon Islands

Analysis

Our model puts a Solomon Islands win at 37.6% in this Int: Friendly fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.28 to 1.32.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1466 against 1495, a gap of 29 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Solomon Islands's attack should find room against Papua New Guinea's defence, by 110 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Published 30 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export