Mexico vs Peru
Our model puts a Mexico win at 70.6% in this Int: Friendly fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.12 to 0.66.
The ratings gap
Mexico carry a rating of 1776 against 1622 for Peru, a gap of 154 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Peru's attack will struggle to break down Mexico's defence, by 176 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 67.5%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.