● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 1 October 2026
Int: Friendly
Lithuania vs Andorra
Wednesday, 30 September 2026 at 16:00
📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.
Win probability
56%
Lithuania wins
25%
Draw
19%
Andorra wins
xG Home
1.65
Lithuania
Blowout %
42%
Dominant win
xG Away
0.85
Andorra
Analysis
Our model puts a Lithuania win at 56.2% in this Int: Friendly fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.65 to 0.85.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Andorra's attack will struggle to break down Lithuania's defence, by 102 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Lithuania are off their season peak
Lithuania peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1358 today, 142 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Market odds
1.65
Lithuania
3.55
Draw
6.00
Andorra
Visualisations · generated charts
Published 1 October 2026 · aleavici-football
Signed export