● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 1 October 2026
Int: Friendly
Botswana vs Mozambique
Wednesday, 30 September 2026 at 14:00
📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.
Win probability
38%
Botswana wins
27%
Draw
36%
Mozambique wins
xG Home
1.32
Botswana
Blowout %
31%
Dominant win
xG Away
1.28
Mozambique
Analysis
Our model puts a Botswana win at 37.6% in this Int: Friendly fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.32 to 1.28.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1444 against 1466, a gap of 22 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Botswana are off their season peak
Botswana peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1444 today, 56 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Visualisations · generated charts
Published 1 October 2026 · aleavici-football
Signed export