Luxembourg vs Iceland
Our model puts an Iceland win at 49.5% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.02 to 1.56.
The ratings gap
Iceland carry a rating of 1527 against 1364 for Luxembourg, a gap of 163 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Iceland's attack should find room against Luxembourg's defence, by 153 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Luxembourg are off their season peak
Luxembourg peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1364 today, 136 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.