Bulgaria vs Estonia

Tuesday, 29 September 2026 at 18:45

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

56%

Bulgaria wins

24%

Draw

19%

Estonia wins

xG Home

1.68

Bulgaria

Blowout %

49%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.86

Estonia

Analysis

Our model puts a Bulgaria win at 56.5% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.68 to 0.86.

Estonia are off their season peak

Estonia peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1422 today, 78 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Market odds

1.74

Bulgaria

3.40

Draw

4.70

Estonia

Published 30 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export