Türkiye vs Italy
Our model puts an Italy win at 46.3% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.1 to 1.5.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Türkiye at 2.6, which implies about 38.5%. Our model has it at 27.8% — 10.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Italy carry a rating of 1774 against 1665 for Turkey, a gap of 108 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Italy's attack should find room against Türkiye's defence, by 159 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
