● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 29 September 2026
Int: UEFA Nations League
Sweden vs Poland
Monday, 28 September 2026 at 18:45
📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.
Win probability
51%
Sweden wins
26%
Draw
23%
Poland wins
xG Home
1.53
Sweden
Blowout %
49%
Dominant win
xG Away
0.95
Poland
Analysis
Our model puts a Sweden win at 50.7% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.53 to 0.95.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Poland at 3.1, which implies about 32.3%. Our model has it at 23.4% — 8.9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1671 against 1650, a gap of 21 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Market odds
2.15
Sweden
3.50
Draw
3.10
Poland
Visualisations · generated charts
Published 29 September 2026 · aleavici-football
Signed export