South Korea vs Uruguay

Monday, 28 September 2026 at 11:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

49%

South Korea wins

26%

Draw

25%

Uruguay wins

xG Home

1.53

South Korea

Blowout %

53%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.03

Uruguay

Analysis

Our model puts a South Korea win at 48.8% in this Int: Friendly fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.53 to 1.03.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price South Korea at 2.6, which implies about 38.5%. Our model has it at 48.8% — 10.3 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1705 against 1711, a gap of 5 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.60

South Korea

3.20

Draw

2.80

Uruguay

Visualisations · generated charts