● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 29 September 2026
Int: UEFA Nations League
Romania vs Bosnia-Herzegovina
Monday, 28 September 2026 at 18:45
📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.
Win probability
52%
Romania wins
25%
Draw
23%
Bosnia-Herzegovina wins
xG Home
1.60
Romania
Blowout %
51%
Dominant win
xG Away
0.96
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Analysis
Our model puts a Romania win at 52% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.6 to 0.96.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Bosnia-Herzegovina at 3.2, which implies about 31.2%. Our model has it at 22.8% — 8.4 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Market odds
2.15
Romania
3.25
Draw
3.20
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Visualisations · generated charts
Published 29 September 2026 · aleavici-football
Signed export