Northern Ireland vs Hungary
Our model puts a Hungary win at 40.1% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.17 to 1.32.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price the draw at 2.9, which implies about 34.5%. Our model has it at 27.1% — 7.4 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Hungary carry a rating of 1616 against 1525 for Northern Ireland, a gap of 91 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.