Leganés vs Castellón
Our model puts a Leganés win at 46.4% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.43 to 1.01.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,498 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 45.2% of the time — 449 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 4.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Castellón at 2.3, which implies about 43.5%. Our model has it at 26.8% — 16.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1562 against 1547, a gap of 16 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Castellón are on a run
Castellón arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 6 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
How often they shoot
Castellón take 17.3 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
75.5% of the shots on target Castellón face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.