Georgia vs Ukraine
Our model puts an Ukraine win at 49.1% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.02 to 1.53.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Georgia at 2.65, which implies about 37.7%. Our model has it at 25.2% — 12.5 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Ukraine carry a rating of 1682 against 1534 for Georgia, a gap of 148 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Ukraine's attack should find room against Georgia's defence, by 102 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.