Belgium vs France
Our model puts a Belgium win at 37.9% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.32 to 1.27.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price France at 1.8, which implies about 55.6%. Our model has it at 35.6% — 20 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, France's attack should find room against Belgium's defence, by 170 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
France are off their season peak
France peaked at 1926 this season and sit at 1870 today, 56 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
