Armenia vs Montenegro

Monday, 28 September 2026 at 16:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

37%

Armenia wins

27%

Draw

36%

Montenegro wins

xG Home

1.30

Armenia

Blowout %

35%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.27

Montenegro

Analysis

Our model puts an Armenia win at 37.4% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.3 to 1.27.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Montenegro's attack should find room against Armenia's defence, by 135 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Armenia are off their season peak

Armenia peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1420 today, 80 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Market odds

2.85

Armenia

3.10

Draw

2.45

Montenegro

Published 29 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export