● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 28 September 2026
Int: UEFA Nations League
Serbia vs Netherlands
Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 16:00
📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.
Win probability
20%
Serbia wins
24%
Draw
57%
Netherlands wins
xG Home
0.92
Serbia
Blowout %
15%
Dominant win
xG Away
1.76
Netherlands
Analysis
Our model puts a Netherlands win at 56.8% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.92 to 1.76.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Netherlands at 1.43, which implies about 69.9%. Our model has it at 56.8% — 13.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Market odds
6.00
Serbia
4.60
Draw
1.43
Netherlands
Visualisations · generated charts
Published 28 September 2026 · aleavici-football
Signed export