San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers

Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 02:30

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

49%

San Jose Earthquakes wins

23%

Draw

28%

Portland Timbers wins

xG Home

1.86

San Jose Earthquakes

Blowout %

54%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.37

Portland Timbers

Analysis

Our model puts a San Jose Earthquakes win at 48.7% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.86 to 1.37.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,435 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 45.7% of the time — 440 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 3.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1496 against 1494, a gap of 2 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

1.95

San Jose Earthquakes

3.80

Draw

3.30

Portland Timbers

Published 27 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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