Real Valladolid vs Córdoba
Our model puts a Real Valladolid win at 40.9% in this Segunda Division fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.39 to 1.21.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,435 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39% of the time — 549 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Córdoba's attack should find room against Real Valladolid's defence, by 96 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Córdoba take 18.5 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Córdoba collect 3.1 cards a match, on 16.8 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Behind the defence
58.7% of the shots on target Córdoba face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.