● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 28 September 2026
Int: Friendly
Malta vs Liechtenstein
Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 16:30
📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.
⚡
High-scoring home side63% chance Malta score four or more. It happens in about 8% of fixtures, and says nothing about who wins.
Win probability
75%
Malta wins
16%
Draw
9%
Liechtenstein wins
xG Home
2.40
Malta
Blowout %
63%
Dominant win
xG Away
0.65
Liechtenstein
Analysis
Our model puts a Malta win at 75.3% in this Int: Friendly fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.4 to 0.65.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 63.1%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.
Market odds
1.26
Malta
5.50
Draw
13.00
Liechtenstein
Visualisations · generated charts
Published 28 September 2026 · aleavici-football
Signed export