Mallorca vs Almería

Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 14:15

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

51%

Mallorca wins

26%

Draw

24%

Almería wins

xG Home

1.56

Mallorca

Blowout %

38%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.97

Almería

Analysis

Our model puts a Mallorca win at 50.9% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.56 to 0.97.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,492 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.1% of the time — 456 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 3.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

A disciplinary record worth knowing

Almería collect 3.4 cards a match, on 13.6 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.

Market odds

2.10

Mallorca

3.20

Draw

3.70

Almería

Published 28 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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