Lithuania vs Azerbaijan

Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 13:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

42%

Lithuania wins

27%

Draw

31%

Azerbaijan wins

xG Home

1.37

Lithuania

Blowout %

32%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.12

Azerbaijan

Analysis

Our model puts a Lithuania win at 42.3% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.37 to 1.12.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price the draw at 2.95, which implies about 33.9%. Our model has it at 26.9% — 7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Market odds

2.25

Lithuania

2.95

Draw

3.35

Azerbaijan

Published 28 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export