Eibar vs Las Palmas
Our model puts an Eibar win at 47.7% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.51 to 1.04.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,492 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.1% of the time — 456 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 3.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Behind the defence
75.5% of the shots on target Eibar face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.