● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 28 September 2026
MLS
Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami CF
Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 23:00
📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.
Win probability
35%
Columbus Crew wins
24%
Draw
41%
Inter Miami CF wins
xG Home
1.51
Columbus Crew
Blowout %
45%
Dominant win
xG Away
1.63
Inter Miami CF
Analysis
Our model puts an Inter Miami CF win at 40.7% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.51 to 1.63.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,492 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 576 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Market odds
2.65
Columbus Crew
4.00
Draw
2.20
Inter Miami CF
Visualisations · generated charts
Published 28 September 2026 · aleavici-football
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