China vs New Zealand

Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 11:35

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

47%

China wins

26%

Draw

27%

New Zealand wins

xG Home

1.48

China

Blowout %

47%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.06

New Zealand

Analysis

Our model puts a China win at 46.7% in this Int: Friendly fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.48 to 1.06.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price New Zealand at 2.05, which implies about 48.8%. Our model has it at 27.1% — 21.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Market odds

3.65

China

3.40

Draw

2.05

New Zealand

Published 28 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export