Burgos vs Eldense
Our model puts a Burgos win at 64.3% in this Segunda Division fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.92 to 0.76.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,492 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.4% of the time — 276 fixtures in that band. That is 9.2 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Burgos at 2.0, which implies about 50%. Our model has it at 64.3% — 14.3 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Early or late
42.9% of Burgos's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 21 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.