Bolivia vs Paraguay

Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 20:30

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

22%

Bolivia wins

25%

Draw

54%

Paraguay wins

xG Home

0.94

Bolivia

Blowout %

15%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.65

Paraguay

Analysis

Our model puts a Paraguay win at 53.6% in this Int: Friendly fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.94 to 1.65.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Paraguay at 1.47, which implies about 68%. Our model has it at 53.6% — 14.4 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Market odds

6.50

Bolivia

4.60

Draw

1.47

Paraguay

Published 28 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export