York City vs Gillingham
Our model puts a York City win at 45.6% in this League Two fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.57 to 1.2.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,435 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 45.7% of the time — 440 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 3.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price York City at 1.57, which implies about 63.7%. Our model has it at 45.6% — 18.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Gillingham are on a run
Gillingham arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 6 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Gillingham are off their season peak
Gillingham peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1406 today, 94 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Early or late
83.3% of Gillingham's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 12 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.